US Stock Market Records & Dollar’s Surge

As we kick off a crucial week for global markets, Monday, July 28, 2025, saw significant movements across the US stock market, bond yields, commodities, and currencies. From new S&P 500 highs to a powerful US Dollar rally, let’s unpack the key forces at play for investors like you in Ireland.

The US equity market maintained its bullish momentum, with both the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) notching up new all-time record highs for the sixth consecutive day. This sustained climb signals robust investor confidence, particularly within the large-cap sector and the technology space. The Nasdaq’s ascent, in particular, hints at high expectations for upcoming Big Tech earnings reports, especially given the continuous surge in AI investment.

However, it wasn’t uniform strength. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) saw a slight dip, and smaller companies in the Russell 2000 (RUT) also declined, suggesting a more selective market favouring larger, more established players. A significant piece of news influencing sentiment was the US and EU’s agreement on a trade deal framework, reducing some of the trade-related uncertainty that has hovered over markets.

• Alphabet (GOOGL) led the charge, reporting stronger-than-expected Q2 profit, largely attributed to its strategic focus on AI technology and increased chip investments. This positive momentum resonated across other AI-focused stocks, including Nvidia (NVDA).
• Conversely, Tesla (TSLA) faced a challenging day after disappointing Q2 automotive revenue figures, highlighting the continued volatility in the EV giant. IBM (IBM) also saw a notable drop after missing Q2 software estimates.
• The trade deal optimism likely contributed to gains in sectors that could benefit from reduced tariffs.

The 10-year US Treasury yield rose on Monday, reaching its highest level since mid-July. This increase reflects a nuanced sentiment. While the Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at its upcoming meeting this week, the market continues to grapple with the long-term inflation outlook and the impact of trade policies. Economic data showed a mixed picture, with a rise in new home sales but an unexpected dip in durable goods orders, keeping economists on their toes.

The crude oil market saw mixed trading, with WTI and Brent crude contracts closing slightly lower. Optimism from the US-EU trade deal, which could boost global economic activity and energy demand, was weighed against concerns of increased oil supply (e.g., from Venezuela). Notably, energy commodities were one of the few asset classes to hold up against broad US Dollar strength yesterday.

Precious metals experienced pressure on Monday. Gold futures fell, as improved “risk-on” sentiment following the US-EU trade agreement reduced its safe-haven appeal. A stronger US Dollar also made gold more expensive for holders of other currencies. Despite this daily dip, gold remains a standout performer year-to-date, up over 31%.

Silver, however, continues to outshine, maintaining its incredible 36% year-to-date gain. Its dual role as both a safe haven and a critical industrial metal (especially in rapidly expanding clean-energy technologies) provides strong underlying support. In industrial metals, copper vessels are reportedly rushing to US ports ahead of new tariffs, potentially leading to short-term price volatility.

Beyond the core energy and metals, the broader commodities market is keenly reacting to global trade agreements. The new US-EU trade framework, following the Japan deal, signals a shift in trade relations that could impact various sectors. An interesting development highlighted this week is the record surge in electricity costs on the largest U.S. power grid, directly attributed to the massive energy demands of expanding Artificial Intelligence (AI) data centres. This points to an emerging, significant impact of AI beyond just the tech stock valuations.

Monday was unequivocally a day of broad US Dollar strength. The WSJ Dollar Index saw its largest one-day gain since May 2025, reaching a new high for the month. This powerful dollar rally put pressure on other currencies and, interestingly, on some equity sectors.

The Euro (EUR) was particularly impacted, falling sharply against the strengthening dollar. This could be interpreted as a “buy the rumour, sell the fact” reaction to the US-EU trade deal, as some analysts suggest the terms may be more favourable to the US. While the NZD, JPY, and AUD also declined against the USD, they showed more resilience than their European counterparts.

The week ahead promises more market-moving action, with major Big Tech earnings reports (including Apple, Amazon, and Meta Platforms) and the highly anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Investors will be closely watching for any signals on the Fed’s future policy direction and how the trade deals continue to unfold.

Got Questions About Your Investments? We’re Here to Help.

Navigating these dynamic market conditions requires insight and expertise. If you have any questions about how the movements in the US stock market, bonds, energy, metals, commodities, or foreign exchange on July 28, 2025, impact your portfolio, or if you’d like to discuss your financial strategy, please don’t hesitate to contact us today. Our team is ready to provide the insights and guidance you need to make informed decisions.