Unlike a “Short Put” where you subtract the credit, here you subtract the debit from your Higher Strike.

• Breakeven Formula: Higher Strike – Net Debit.

  • $672.00 – $1.52 = $670.48.

• The Goal: You need SPY to be below $670.48 at expiration to be in the green.

👨‍🏫 Mentor’s Insight: High Reward, Lower Probability

“Stephen here. I want to be very honest with you: because you are looking for a 163% return, the market isn’t going to give that to you for free.

The Probability of Profit (PoP) on this trade is about 47%. It’s basically a coin flip that the market moves down. However, in the ‘Smarter Bear’ strategy, we don’t mind a 47% win rate because when we win, we make $248, and when we lose, we only lose $152.

In our weekly 1-on-1 mentoring sessions, I’ll show you how to use technical analysis to tilt those 47% odds in your favor. Ready to see why a 50% win rate can make you a fortune? Book a Free Strategy Call today and let’s look at the math of ‘Expected Value’ together.”

🛠️ Stephen’s Implementation Tip:

• The ‘Sweet Spot’ Width: We used a $4 wide spread here. Widening the spread (e.g., $672/$662) increases your profit potential but also increases your cost and risk.